By Pamela Gentry, Senior Political Producer

Posted Nov. 6, 2007 – What if winning the Republican primary in South Carolina came down to the Black vote?  It’s really not that far fetched, and here’s why.

This week The Washington Post-ABC News Poll showed Republican candidates in a dead heat in several states.  This is something the party hasn’t seen since 1979, usually at least one candidate has about 40 percent of the folks locked up.  Not so this time around.  

The poll of upcoming primary states found that if the primaries were held today, 31 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents would vote for ex-N.Y. Mayor Rudy Giuliani, 17 percent for Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) and 14 percent for former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.)

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney garnered 11 percent, just 2 percentage points ahead of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.  

National surveys conducted by the Black think tank known as the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies since 1984, found that there continues to be a slight increase of Black voters identifying with the Republican Party.   If this trend continues, Republicans may find it harder to ignore the Black vote in states where they don’t hold a commanding lead.

So, if Black Republicans in a state like South Carolina turn out, they could swing a couple of percentage points to a candidate and possibly determine the winner. In the 2000 presidential race, Black folks were 8 percent of Republican voters, and their numbers increased to 11 percent in 2004. 

 It’s possible more Black folks could start to affect the outcome of both parties in 2008.