By Pamela Gentry, Senior Political Producer

Posted Nov. 6, 2007 – What if winning the Republican primary in South Carolina came down to the Black vote?  It’s really not that far fetched, and here’s why.

This week The Washington Post-ABC News Poll showed Republican candidates in a dead heat in several states.  This is something the party hasn’t seen since 1979, usually at least one candidate has about 40 percent of the folks locked up.  Not so this time around.  

The poll of upcoming primary states found that if the primaries were held today, 31 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents would vote for ex-N.Y. Mayor Rudy Giuliani, 17 percent for Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) and 14 percent for former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.)

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney garnered 11 percent, just 2 percentage points ahead of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.  

National surveys conducted by the Black think tank known as the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies since 1984, found that there continues to be a slight increase of Black voters identifying with the Republican Party.   If this trend continues, Republicans may find it harder to ignore the Black vote in states where they don’t hold a commanding lead.

So, if Black Republicans in a state like South Carolina turn out, they could swing a couple of percentage points to a candidate and possibly determine the winner. In the 2000 presidential race, Black folks were 8 percent of Republican voters, and their numbers increased to 11 percent in 2004. 

 It’s possible more Black folks could start to affect the outcome of both parties in 2008. 

Will the Democrats be able to change things?  

Posted Nov. 2, 2007 – Folks voted for change in Washington and decided the Democrats might be able to make it happen.  It will be one year this month that the Dems have been in charge, and they’ve had their share of accomplishments and defeats. 

They’ve been able to get emergency legislation passed, like funding Katrina recovery, rebuilding the bridge in Minneapolis and providing assistance following the California wildfires. But major funding bills needed to run the government are in limbo or have been defeated by presidential veto.

The president has dug in deep when it comes to defeating the Democrats State Children’s Health Insurance Program (S-CHIP).  It doesn’t look like either side is backing down.  It’s understandable; the Dems see this as an easy campaign ad against any Republican in 2008. Rep. Chris Van Hollen, (D- Md.) chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is revving up on this issue.  This week, he released a statement accusing Bush Republicans of “playing” with the bill.

“Republicans claim they want to negotiate in good faith.  Now, we learn that President Bush and congressional Republicans are more worried about protecting the tobacco lobby than providing health insurance to American kids,” Van Hollen said.  

Bush said this week he wouldn’t support a bill that raised tobacco taxes.  Congress has a lot of work to do, and it looks like Bush want’s a lot of compromise. 
 
“One year ago, the American people demanded a change of direction and the president and congressional Republicans are doing everything in their power to stand in the way of that,” Van Hollan said.

Pamela J. Gentry, Senior Political Producer