By Pamela Gentry, Senior Political Producer

Posted Dec. 12, 2007 – It didn’t take long for the numbers crunchers to start calculating the “Oprah Factor.”  After Oprah Winfrey and Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) took a weekend tour of primary states, and commandeered every front page in the process, CBS/New York Times suggested in a new poll that all that hype might not even help Obama.

That’s not a surprise to me. I’m not sure any celeb can deliver votes. But if it can be done, my money is on Winfrey.  What we know so far is that she has done a better job than any other celebrity can do: provide up-close exposure of her candidate to tens of thousands of people in just three appearances in as many days.

Tuesday’s survey found that only 1 percent of primary voters said they were “more likely”  to vote for Obama because he was Winfrey’s presidential pick.

But 44 percent of Democratic primary voters say they would give their vote to Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) because it’s a two-four-one deal; they get the added bonus of husband Bill Clinton, who they believe knew a thing or two about how to run the White House.  If that’s how they feel, I’m not sure that’s good news for the senator. 

 InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery, made a correlation between Obama’s numbers and Winfrey’s visit.

“Obama’s support among African-Americans rose a bit over the weekend, while Clinton’s dropped. This follows our poll of late last week in which there was a major shift in Black voters towards Obama,” Towery said in a statement. “However, Obama’s White vote has not moved.

 A lot of this poll-watching with Winfrey is about the Black vote.  Obama is starting to chisel away at Clinton’s lead with Black folks, and Clinton had maintained a strong lead among Blacks voters because of Bill Clinton’s popularity in the African-American community.
 
Now pressure is on Clinton to regain loss ground with African-American voters, a must in a state like South Carolina.  Of the 480 likely voters surveyed, 80 percent said the Oprah factor made no difference for Obama’s chances, and 14 percent said her support made them less likely to support Obama.

While more than a quarter (26 percent) of the folks polled said they were supporting Hillary because of Bill, fewer than a quarter (23 percent) said they thought she had the experience to do the job.
If that perception persists, Clinton might find herself running against her husband rather than her challengers for the nomination.  

Will you decide who to vote for based on either of these folks? 

By Pamela Gentry, Senior Political Producer 

Posted Dec. 10, 2007 – Sen. Barack Obama’s momentum continues to escalate following a weekend of record-breaking crowds for him and campaign comrade  Oprah Winfrey. This week kicked off with another boost for the surging presidential hopeful, an endorsement from California Rep. Barbara Lee, (D). 

 Lee was one of only six members of 43 Congressional Black Caucus still up for grabs.  Her support is a “good get” for Obama because Lee’s district in Oakland gives Obama a strong advocate in California outside of Los Angeles area. And, remember, Oakland’s mayor – and former longtime stalwart in the U.S. House of Representatives – Ron Dellums, has already thrown his support behind Sen. Hillary Clinton, no doubt because he, like many other Black leaders who have sided with Clinton, initially doubted Obama’s potential to gain the nomination.
”He does represent that bridge to the future; he represents hope, new direction, which our country desperate needs,” Lee told reporters. ”This is a very powerful and defining moment for our country, and my conscience is my guide. I can’t sit on the sidelines when we have an opportunity to move forward.”
Lee and Obama were both longtime opponents of the war in Iraq. Lee was one of the few members in Congress who voted against giving the President Bush authorization for use of force.  So it’s no surprise Obama is her pick. 
There was more good news for the Obama campaign. 
A recent poll shows that the races in Iowa and New Hampshire are too close to call.  The McClatchy-MSNBC poll released Monday showed Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) has 27 percent of the likely voters in Iowa; Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has 25 percent; and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina has 21 percent.  Only 11 percent of Iowa Democrats remain undecided.

In New Hampshire, where the primary will be held Jan. 7, Clinton leads Obama 30 percent to 27 percent; ;Edwards is third with 10 percent. 
In South Carolina, where Obama and Winfrey were greeted Sunday by tens of thousands of exuberant supporters, Clinton leads with 28 percent to his 25 percent; Edwards has 18 percent.   The margin of error puts Clinton and Obama in a virtual tie.
 

By Pamela Gentry, Senior Political Reporter

Posted Dec. 9, 2007 – The folks who packed the venues in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina weren’t disappointed.  They got a chance to be in an audience with Oprah Winfrey on stage. 

My sister, Phyllis Hurse, called me Saturday afternoon. “Are you watching Oprah on CNN?” she asked me. Sis lives in Orange County, Calif., known as a Republican stronghold. 
I’m not sure who my sister is planning to support in the 2008 presidential race, but her phone call made me realize folks across the country were tuned in to hear what Winfrey had to say. And, Winfrey was saying that Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) should be the next president.

The pundits and political-watchers had a field day predicting the impact and influence of the world’s most powerful media mogul who decided to venture into politics. 

The media, including myself, have been obsessed with the story.  Winfrey’s road trip made it on the front page national and international newspapers, more than 1,600 Web site news stories. CNN carried Winfrey’s speech in Des Moines without commercial breaks on Saturday, and Sunday ABC’s cable network carried the event in Columbia, S.C., live and commercial-free.    

Obama thanked Winfrey for her support, as she and his wife, Michelle, sat on stage while he delivered his stump speech.  Obama acknowledged the crowds were larger this swing through the early primary states, crediting the “Oprah factor.”  But it was clearly an advantage Obama has enjoyed – and, I’m sure, other candidates envied.

Winfrey called Obama “The candidate who can change America.”   I think Winfrey should be called, “The celebrity who has changed campaigning.”

Who will you support? Obama? Hillary? Or neither? Talk about it. 
     

By Pamela Gentry, Senior Political Producer

Posted Dec. 7, 2007 – Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s took a leap of faith and gave a speech on religion and leadership that had been anticipated since he announced he would do so this past weekend.

Romney, a Mormon, has avoided speaking directly on the issue of religion but decided it was time for a change.  This could have been prompted by recent poll numbers in early primary states placing him in second place among Republican presidential candidates  behind rival Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. 

The speech was well crafted and answered the questions he knew Evangelical Christians wanted the answers to.  “What do I believe about Jesus Christ? I believe that Jesus Christ is the Son of God and the Savior of mankind,” Romney said.

Romney compared himself to President John F. Kennedy, another Massachusetts native, who was the first Catholic to run for president.  “Like him, I am an American running for president. I do not define my candidacy by my religion,” he said.

Dr. Benjamin Chavis, former executive director of the NAACP and current president and CEO of the Hip Hop Action Network, told me, “I believe it was a sincere attempt to make a comparison between himself and President Kennedy.”  As youth coordinator for the Southern Christian Leadership Conference, Chavis served on the advance team of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., and he also worked for the presidential campaign of Sen. Robert F. Kennedy.

“[Romney] will have to do much more than engage in rhetoric, in the Black community; faith is vital and very serious,” said Chavis, who earned a doctorate of ministry from Howard University before becoming a minister in the Nation of Islam.

Romney made several historical references in his speech, but as Chavis noted, “He mentioned the founding fathers, but some of them were slaveholders.” 

The Hill newspaper reported that most political watchers gave the speech positive feedback.  A senior adviser told them, they were getting positive reactions from “leaders in the faith community too.” 

Chavis reminded that, in the early years, the Mormon Church – like other “mainline protestant churches” in America – didn’t greet Black folk with open arms. “We know the Mormon Church historically has had some racial exclusion,” he said. 

Romney cited “American values” and his religious upbringing as the foundation of his faith.  “I was taught in my home to honor God and love my neighbor,” he said.  “I saw my father march with Martin Luther King. I saw my parent provide compassionate care to others.”

Romney’s speech might have been “fairly good,” Chavis said, but like other Republican candidates, he “faces challenges that have nothing to do with faith” when it comes to winning the Black vote.   

“We need someone who’s gong to help get our people out of poverty and prison and stand up to racial inequality, someone with a sensitivity to improve the quality of life of African Americans,” Chavis said.

By Pamela Gentry, Senior Political Producer

Will Oprah’s favorite presidential pick be yours?  Read and respond. 

Posted Dec. 4, 2007 – This weekend television talk show queen Oprah Winfrey will hit the campaign trail with another one of her favorites, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.).   We all know making “Oprah’s favorite list,” can sell millions of books, make a fashion designer a household name, and propel anyone into stardom.  But we don’t know if her “Midas touch” will have the same influence on politics. 
Well, we’re about to find out. 
Winfrey had avoided politics for years on her top rated daytime show. It wasn’t until the 2000 presidential race – when Winfrey invited then-Gov. George Bush (R) of Texas and former Vice President Al Gore (D) in separate appearances to sit on the coveted stage at Harpo Studios in Chicago. As I recall, neither candidate made news and both interviews were somewhat lackluster.  Still, millions tuned in.
But this presidential race is different.  Winfrey decided it wasn’t about equal time; it was about someone she knew, respected and trusted: Obama. Because Oprah is going on the road and not on “Oprah” with her presidential pick, her program avoids a confrontation with the Federal Communications Commission.
Her appearances in primary states with Obama avoid any requirement for her to give his opposing candidates equal time on her show.  If an invited candidate doesn’t have to pay for the time – and guests on her show don’t pay – Oprah is required to give the opposing candidate the same amount of free time. 
 The announcement from Obama’s camp that the two powerful African-American “O’s” would be joined on the campaign trail must have put rival campaigns into a tizzy. 
But Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.), who knows a thing or two about how to campaign, reached into her bag of star power and pulled out Barbra Streisand, arguably the “second”-most loved woman entertainer.  Streisand is a longtime friend and fundraiser for the Clintons.  

Both Obama and Clinton have their share of celebrity supporters, most in the fundraising area, but few have stomped on the campaign trail. There really isn’t any way to measure the impact of a celebrity endorsement, but if a celeb can make a difference, my bet’s on Oprah. 
 

By Pamela Gentry, Senior Political Producer 

How important is faith to you when selecting a candidate for president? Read and Respond.

Posted Dec. 2, 2007 – There’s a new frontrunner among the  Republican presidential candidates according to a recent poll of likely Iowa caucus-goers.  The Des Moines Register poll released on Saturday revealed that former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has edged out Mitt Gov. Romney to take over the top spot in the GOP race to the White House. Huckabee now has 29 percent, to  Romney’s 24 percent and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s 13 percent.

Huckabee was 17 points behind Romney in a similar poll taken in October.
Huckabee isn’t the only candidate making waves this weekend.  Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who only netted 7 percent in the Iowa poll, walked away with the coveted endorsement of the conservative Manchester Union Leader newspaper.

  Publisher Joe McQuaid, who penned the endorsement, cited McCain as the candidate who understands the threats to the United States and has prove[d] his right to criticize the Bush administration’s prosecution of the War on Terror; fights against earmarks; has  a strong anti-abortion position and can work across party lines.
The recent surge by Huckabee and endorsement for McCain could be why Romney’s camp announced Sunday that the former Massachusetts governor would be giving a speech Thursday, titled “Faith in America.”

Kevin Madden, spokesman for the campaign, said, “This speech is an opportunity for Gov. Romney to share his views on religious liberty, the grand tradition religious tolerance has played in the progress of our nation and how the governor’s own faith would inform his presidency if he were elected.”
The speech is slated to take place at the George Bush Presidential Library in College Station, Texas.  Madden said, “Gov. Romney personally made the decision to deliver this speech some time last week.” 

Religion has been the one issue Romney can’t seem to explain well enough to Iowa voters.  We’ll have to see if this speech makes the difference in Iowa and in other early primary states, like South Carolina. 

“Gov. Romney understands that faith is an important issue to many Americans, and he personally feels this moment is the right moment for him to share his views with the nation,” Madden said.

By Pamela Gentry, Senior Political Producer 

Which candidate do you think has the best platform addressing issues impacting communities of color?   

DETROIT (Posted Dec. 3, 2007) – On Saturday, I was looking forward to covering the Black and Brown Debate between Democratic presidential rivals in Des Moines, Iowa.  But thanks to Mother Nature, my journey ended in the Detroit Metropolitan Airport, listening to the debate via satellite radio on a fellow travelers laptop. 

The first major ice and snow storm of the season chose this weekend to wreak havoc, and left me sitting on a runway for two hours waiting for my flight to take off. It never did, and my plane returned to the terminal at midnight.  

Fortunately, I was able to feed questions to BET producer Tiffany Tate, who was in the post-debate spin room.  Tate arrived in Des Moines Friday before the storm.
Candidates were asked about a variety of issues affecting Black and Latino Americans.  After the debate, most of the candidates sent reps to the North High School gymnasium to meet the press. 

Rodney Slater, the former secretary of Transportation in Bill Clinton’s administration, was on hand to support Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.). “She did an excellent job,” he said. “She clearly demonstrated that she is ready to move forward with a plan to move America forward.”

Naturally, Missouri State Rep. Connie Johnson (D), a supporter of former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.),  saw things differently.  “He [Edwards] was the only candidate who addressed what the purpose of this forum was.  This forum was about addressing the issues that are relevant and prevalent to the African-American and Hispanic-Latino communities.”

“He’s the only one who has laid out a comprehensive urban agenda, as well as true immigration reform.  He didn’t isolate the two populations.  He said we are all in this together,” Johnson added.
Johnson made a good point regarding the purpose of the forum.  I noticed candidates slipping back to more generic responses to questions that didn’t offer many specifics.

  
Iowa State Rep. Ako Abdul-Samad (D) said he thought that Obama got it right.  “He addressed the issues and talked about taking proactive steps in regards to issues that affect the Black and Latino communities.”

“Crack v. Coke, incarceration and even embracing the Hip-Hop Generation …. These issues are real for us.  There are systematic changes needed, not cosmetic, and Sen. Obama addressed them.”
The only two candidates spinning on their own after the debate were Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) and Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.).

Kucinich told BET, “When you look at the nature of this forum, Black and Brown, I think of the Black and Brown soldiers who won’t make it home to their families for a while unless we get out of Iraq.”
The war wasn’t a big topic in the debate and Kucinich found that to be a concern. “It’s amazing how the  presidential debate is starting to shift away from Iraq, Kucinich said.

 This forum was a “missed opportunity” to focus on the things the “American people are concerned about now, and that’s what I was here to do,” Kucinich said.
The war in Iraq wasn’t the only war Dodd said needs attention. “We have to have leadership that can win the war in urban America,”  he said.

But he said Democrats can’t do it alone. “We have to have a bi-partisan effort to make changes in the environment, in regards to healthcare and poverty.  No one party can make it happen, so I am pleased that I was able to make that case tonight,” Dodd insisted.

Late Saturday night, The Des Moines Register newspaper released a poll of likely caucus-goers.  For the second time in as many weeks, the top three candidates came out in a statistical dead heat: Obama earning 28 percent, to Clinton’s 25 percent and Edwards’ 23 percent.

BET Producer Tiffany Tate contributed to this report.